It might feel a little early for a check-in, but how is your 2025 going so far? Did you get some time off over the summer? Are you feeling re-energised? Or are you (like me) feeling like you’re suffering a hangover after five years of heightened uncertainty?
Personally, the pervasive sense of uncertainty lured me back to my workplace (read: home office) a little earlier than normal this year. On the 6th of January, I turned the laptop on, but the experience of being back at work was so unenjoyable that on the 7th of January, I turned it back off again*.
- ‘I appreciate this might sound like a privileged option if you’re someone who’s in full time employment, but if you’re self employed, taking time off comes with its own consequences. Namely, if you’re not working, you’re also not getting paid.
I don’t know if this is a common experience for you, but historically, it hasn’t been so for me. I have spent the last 15 years designing and building a business that I love, and I generally come back after holidays with enthusiasm for my work and my clients*.
- ‘I have a rule of not taking on work and not taking on clients unless I’d be happy to still be working with them when I’m 70. Although I won’t necessarily still be doing the same things in 20 years, I find it’s a good sense check of how I want to spend my time and who I want to spend it with.
But the truth was, I wasn’t ready. I hadn’t re-energised, and the overwhelm of not really knowing what I was meant to do or where I could best focus my energy got the best of me. So for the last couple of weeks, instead of feeling compelled to sit in front of my computer procrastinating, I’ve spent it resetting my relationship with uncertainty.
From talking to clients and consultancy friends over that time It’s clear I’m not the only one who’s dealing with this. So in case you’re also one of those people feeling a little overwhelmed by the world I thought I’d start the year by sharing some what I’ve uncovered.
- The more we know, the more uncertain things become
This might sound counter-intuitive. We would expect that if we know more, we should be able to predict more, and subsequently, the more certain life will be. But in reality, knowing more just leads to the realisation there’s so much more we don’t know. Knowing there is so much we don’t know (the Known Unknowns of the now-classic Rumsfeld Matrix) exacerbates our feelings of uncertainty but doesn’t actually change how much uncertainty exists in the universe.
I appreciate this may come across as a little philosophical, but it provides insights that are also incredibly useful. It means the very act of trying to solve for uncertainty by doing more research may actually exacerbate the very feeling of uncertainty that you’re trying to overcome*.
* It also suggests that social media doesn’t help. By scrolling endless posts about cooking international cuisines, dog grooming, cleaning hacks, and home cardio workouts, we also discover entirely new realms of knowledge that were previously unknown to us. This turns Unknown Unknowns into Known Unknowns, dramatically increasing the amount of uncertainty in our lives.
This doesn’t mean there is no value in research and inquiry. It is valuable to understand the connectedness of things and know where to look for signals of change. At the same time we need to be OK with acting without knowing, otherwise we will just end up being debilitated by the uncertainty.
One strategy to pursue in such circumstances can be found in Dave Snowden’s work on complexity. He suggests the best approach in complex, uncertain systems is ‘probe, sense, respond’. This could otherwise be translated as: ‘Try something. If the outcome is good, do more of it. If the outcome is bad, do something else’.
- Reframe uncertainty as something else
I recently started reading a book called ADHD Explained. In the book there is a powerful table listing common traits of people with ADHD and how they could be reframed. Distractible is also curious, stubborn is also persistent, unconventional is also trail-blazing and hyperactive is also energetic.
For people who have been diagnosed with ADHD, or even people who exhibit similar traits, it can be life changing to see your behaviours reframed from something negative into something positive. In reality, the things in life that we consider good or bad are just a matter of perspective and usually at a particular point in time. Even a car accident can have a great outcome if you’re a panel beater.
So how might we reframe uncertainty? The most obvious flip of uncertainty is ‘surprise’ but other closely related concepts are ‘amazement’, ‘wonder’ and ‘awe’. In fact I would argue that most of the incredible, and memorable experiences in our lives are because we encountered something unexpected.
- Question certainty when you see it
There is a very real risk that in this emerging era of data-modernism, we are being mislead to believe that uncertainty is something that can be overcome. That with enough data and information we will be able to accurately predict what will happen in the future and that uncertainty will be relegated to the dustbins of history.
But instead of getting technology that gives us the right answer, we end up getting tools that just sound much more right than they really are. Our weather apps, Google Maps and ChatGPT prey on our desire for certainty and predictability. They give answers that are absolute certain, even when they are also absolutely wrong.
The problem with this is that we’re being trained to believe that certainty is possible, and in doing so there is the very real risk that our tolerance for uncertainty becomes diminished. The technologists will tell you that these tools are getting better and that one day they will be able to accurately predict everything with superhuman ability, and although there is evidence that these tools are getting better, the idea that uncertainty can be eliminated all together is, well, bullshit.
The allure of certainty is powerful and we pursue it in many aspects of our lives. Many people prefer the certainty of insurance over the uncertainty of natural disasters, and the certainty of a salary over the uncertainty of our own business. Asking people to question certainty might sound unrealistic and undesirable.
But outside death and taxes nothing remains certain forever. Premiums can go up and insurance can be denied. Jobs can change and people get fired. This is not to say that everyone should self-insure, quit their jobs and start their own business but rather that we should acknowledge the illusion of certainty. If we free ourselves from the false belief that certainty exists, perhaps we will be less surprised when the things we were expecting don’t happen and we will prepare ourselves better for the alternatives.
- Don’t do uncertainty alone
Although few things are absolute certain, some things can still be more certain than others, at least in the short term. In my keynote, The Art of Future Thinking, I share a thought experiment about when might we expect humans to once again land on the moon to illustrate the impact of time on uncertainty. Billions of dollars are being spent globally on this goal, but we can still be quite certain it won’t happen next week. We can also be relatively certain it won’t happen in the next couple of years, but within a decade, it’s realistic.
Establishing which big things are certain or uncertain is easier when you share your thinking with others. I’ve spoken extensively about the need for a “collective world view” in organisational decision-making.
In addition, if we can share our world view with a group of diverse people, each with a different perspective, we are likely to gain additional insights. If we look at the important trends shaping our work from five entirely different angles and see similar patterns unfolding we can feel much more certain about what’s going on. Even when there isn’t clear alignment, hearing four other perspectives can give everyone insights into where their own thinking might need fine tuning.
Although I run workshops to do this on a more formal basis with clients, a quick and easy starting point is just meeting people with overlapping perspectives informally for a coffee… and then ask lots of questions. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve met with several clients to better understand their challenges. These conversations have already given me clarity on where to focus my energy and have rekindled some excitement I was missing a couple of weeks ago.
If you’re 2025 started a little like mine, I hope the above gives you hope and perhaps a sense of direction. I know there’s pressure to hit the ground running, but working at 100% in the wrong direction can lead to more than just lost time. So take a moment to pause. Engage in some purposeful conversations with your clients and with your team. It can help overcome collective uncertainty and align efforts for the year ahead.
Simon